This probably doesn’t come as a shock, but NFL football betting is big business. In fact, as much as $100 billion is bet every season on it. And the Super Bowl? Well, that’s the most heavily bet single sporting event in history. The Super Bowl brings in millions from betting action from a single game. Alone.
The numbers don’t lie. As much as football is America’s favorite pastime, so is NFL betting. Amazingly, over half of the adult U.S. population is expected to put down some type of wager on the Super Bowl this year. If the majority of the country will be placing bets, then it’s only right to properly equip them with NFL betting secrets to up their chances of winning. Here are some tried-and-true secrets that will help you wager successfully on this year’s NFL season.
Home-Field Advantage Matters
Whether you believe in it or not, home-field advantage has been an obvious factor behind many winning bets. But what exactly makes it an “advantage” anyway? For one, the effect of the crowd. When fan attendance and team spirit is high, it can undoubtedly inspire a team to put their best foot forward.
It’s human nature. When people are watching, you try harder. But it’s not just people we’re talking about here, but loyal fans who have nothing but faith in their team. This type of energy infuses adrenaline and confidence in players. Travel fatigue and biased refs are two other big reasons why playing at home is preferred and tends to result in better performances.
Go Against Number Two
Super Bowl losers tend to struggle and not perform nearly as well in the following season. At least, in the first half of the season. Now of course, there are exceptions to this rule, but it’s usually a safe bet to bet against Super Bowl losers in the first few games of the follow-up season.
The psychological aftershock of losing a game of that magnitude can be crippling. The looming feeling of defeat can be to blame for a less stellar performance in the following season by Super Bowl losers. And it’s a pattern we’ve seen too often. Don’t forget to consider this when placing bets in the beginning of the next season.
Underdogs Have Bite
While the betting line on favorites is typically inflated, what that means is that the best value you’re going to find during the regular season is on the NFL underdogs, week after week. Think of the high-profile teams as a brand you know and trust. Most people wouldn’t throw caution to the wind buying a product from a company they hardly know. But what if that company is full of grit, has something to prove and value to show?
You can think of underdogs in the same way. Underdogs generally have something to prove, especially if they’re backed by loyal home fans. If a game isn’t far overmatched, consider backing the underdog. If they bite, it’ll make for a bankroll-boosting win.
Don’t Skip Halftime
Football halftimes are big, and often something that people overlook. Many sportsbooks will sometimes overcompensate for the team that’s winning at halftime, so much so that they can make the trailing team a solid bet.
If you’re going to make a bet during halftime, bet the team at halftime that you think will beat the original line. The winner is always difficult to predict during halftime, so it’s good to go in with this strategy in place.
The Three-Year Trend
If you really want to go in making the most educated betting guess you can make, you should go back at least three seasons into a team’s past performances. This can help you identify teams that have been consistent ATS winners, not ones who have won on a fluke. The things you should be looking at when looking at past season plays are roster losses, additions, and other similar factors.